Will the World’s Militaries Decarbonize With the Rest of Us?

Students are blogging about topics that interest them for Applications in Climate and Society, a core spring class.

Peter Deneen, C+S ’19

Naval vessels from five nations sail in parade formation for a rare photographic opportunity at sea. (Source: U.S. Navy/PH3 Alta I. Cutler)

The urgency of curbing greenhouse gas emissions to limit climate change is enjoying unprecedented global attention. But there’s one source of carbon emissions that has been flying under the radar: the world’s militaries.

When the U.S. negotiated the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, it engineered a loophole to exempt military emissions from reductions. In the 2015 Paris Agreement, however, that proviso was removed, sort of. Under the Paris Agreement’s pledge-what-you-can approach, nations decide which sectors to cut emissions from. Whether or not emissions reductions come from their militaries is entirely up to them, meaning nations are not required to specifically report their military emissions.

Indeed, most countries’ military emissions are negligible. But U.S. has one of the largest armed forces in the world and emits enough carbon to warrant scrutiny. Increased military spending by the U.S. and other global powers raises questions about the strength of climate pledges and nations’ resolve to fulfill them if military emissions rise.

No one is certain how much carbon the U.S. military emits from its energy use and fuel consumption. While the Department of Energy (DOE) provides estimates of U.S. military emissions, it excludes its 600 overseas bases and operations occurring away from American soil.

Those emissions are significant. A 2008 Oil Change International report estimates that the Iraq War alone was “responsible for at least 141 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.” The report notes that war’s annual emissions at the time were greater than 139 countries and equivalent to adding 25 million cars to U.S. roads.

It is difficult to quantify U.S. military emissions during normal operations. First, the country has been at war for virtually the entire era of carbon accountability. Second, the U.S. withholds an undisclosed amount of emissions data behind a veil of national security. Even the Environmental Protection Agency’s comprehensive list of U.S. emissions is only able to estimate military emissions based on fuel purchased.

Of the emissions disclosed in DOE greenhouse gas estimates in 2017, the Department of Defense (DOD) emitted more than an estimated 59 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, more than the country of Libya for that year. Industries producing materials to support the military-industrial complex, including carbon embedded in ships, planes, vehicles, and the DOD’s sprawling facilities, are not accounted for in that figure.

“If we’re going to win on climate we have to make sure we are counting carbon completely, not exempting different things like military emissions because it is politically inconvenient to count them,” Stephen Kretzmann, Oil Change International’s director, told The Guardian. “The atmosphere certainly counts the carbon from the military. Therefore we must as well.”

If 2019 military budgets are an indication of future emissions, the carbon output of the world’s largest militaries is likely to increase. In mid-March, President Donald Trump released his budget proposal, which asks for $716 billion for national security, a five percent increase from 2018. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a 7.5 percent increase in defense spending as he continues building China’s own world-class military.

Countries like the U.S. and China seem reluctant to sacrifice their positions in the world order for emissions reductions that might compromise their ability to maintain power. The insecurity of nations propelling them to spend ever-increasing sums upgrading their militaries, and in doing so, emit millions of tons of carbon each year, might be one of greatest barriers to marshaling global resources to curb climate change.

Brinksmanship militarily could mean brinksmanship planetarily.

Peter Deneen is a graduate student of Climate and Society at Columbia University. He is a former military officer and graduate of the United States Coast Guard Academy.