Putting Knowledge to Practice for Fast-Track Adaptation

Photo by Brian Kahn

By Nicolai Prytz, Climate and Society ’13

With international policy efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions stalling over the past two decades, it is an increasingly recognized opinion that climate change adaptation strategies, and the policies that enable them, must be given immediate priority. In contrast to mitigation, adaptation seems in many ways the more straightforward approach to tackling the challenges of climate change, with more attainable goals in the short term. Doing adaptation right is however oftentimes not all that straightforward. In too many cases, adaptation programs struggle to transition from diagnosis and design into the implementation phase. This lack of action then produces the perception of adaptation as time-consuming, costly, complicated, and uncertain, thus further paralyzing efforts.

In my internship this summer, I am working on a research project for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which aims to identify interventions for climate change adaptation in agriculture that bear potential for so-called ‘fast-track implementation’ (FTI). These are low-cost and low-regret actions that can relatively quickly reduce vulnerability and impact risk in spite of local resource and capacity constraints. Within a customized framework of design criteria that highlights costs considerations, straightforwardness, risk reduction potential and the robustness of each intervention, we select best practice options, based on case study validation, that together will constitute a suite of adaptation strategies for the agriculture sector.

As a bonus to the comprehensive knowledge I am gaining on adaptation in agriculture from this internship, I find it stimulating to realize how I am making use of so much information that I attained from my studies in Climate and Society over this past year. Every week, as I read new case studies of agricultural adaptation projects and try to synthesize their opportunities and challenges in a ‘fast-track’ framework, I find myself applying analytical models from specific courses that I took, or integrating lessons from a class project, or the most satisfying experience – combining knowledge from different fields in the very practical context that this project represents.

My experience with the project so far has been that identifying these FTI options, and the conditions under which they will be effective, really requires an integrated and holistic understanding of climate variability and change. One must consider the scientific nature of specific risks, the behavioral psychology of people’s response to these risks, and the political and socio-economic context in which risks can be addressed.

For example, I have lately been assessing the potential of distributing seasonal climate forecasts directly to smallholder farmers as a means to relieve impacts of drought on rain-fed agriculture. Seasonal forecasts allow farmers to make strategic choices in response to probabilistic information, thus enhancing their capacity to make impact-reducing decisions in the face of drought. If the forecast is bad, farmers may choose to implement soil and water conservation techniques, plant shorter duration and more drought resistant crops, apply less fertilizer/ manure etc. Conversely, if the forecast predicts above average rains, farmers can prepare water harvesting and storage to remedy future impacts of drought.

Although seemingly a straightforward logic, full comprehension of the forecasts’ usefulness to farmers is a multi-faceted endeavor. On one hand it involves understanding how forecasts are made, implications of climate uncertainty, prediction model caveats and constraints, and linking all this information with crop climate response. Additionally, One must address important questions of what capacity must be in place that allows farmers to make the best possible decisions in response to a forecast. Are there agricultural extension services available that can validate farmers’ forecast interpretation? Do farmers have the money to buy seeds for a drought resistant crop? Are information dissemination mechanisms in place that ensure timely delivery of the forecasts? Etc. Further questions, with focus on farmers’ perception of risk and approach to risk management are equally important for the adaptation effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts.